How to Predict Your Marathon Pace
Run Pacing – How to Predict a Pace for Your First Marathon.
In two of my recent articles I have discussed the importance of pacing. I started with a look at the importance of getting the pace right and subsequently went on to review some of the evidence from an elite runners perspective. I concluded that article by suggesting that if even or negative pacing was good enough for Haile then it should be good enough for all of us. Having hopefully convinced you that pacing is a worthy thing to aspire to the question then is, how do I calculate my pace for my next marathon? If I haven’t convinced you then go out and smash the first half of your next race and let me know your splits for the two halves. One of my athletes recently completed a well paced 10km race in 37:23 so I decided to use this time to look at what is out there to try and ascertain a predicted marathon time finish. Of course a great predictor of a marathon time is a recent marathon time! But what if this is your first marathon? How accurate can you predict how well you will do from shorter races and therefore what pace you should run. Read more >>
Triathlon Swimming: Swim Faster with Less Effort
Making a Triathlon Swim less of a Drag.
I don’t need to tell the average age group triathlete that water is 1000 times denser than air. This is a result of the billions of hydrogen and oxygen molecules that give water its density. Therefore as a swimmer moves through the water it resists that movement with a force substantially greater than air. This force is known as resistive drag and swimmers must literally move water molecules out of the way to open a hole to allow the body to pass through. This is why drafting in a swim is so beneficial. Therefore a swimmer who reduces the resistive drag they encounter will travel forwards faster and with less effort; and if that swim is the opening component of a triathlon then it is even more beneficial.
Forefoot Running for Ironman Athletes
Almost on a daily basis I meet Ironman athletes or aspiring Ironman athletes who have been struggling with trying to teach themselves to run with more of a midfoot or forefoot strike rather than their previous heel strike. Sometimes they have suffered from achilles tendon injuries from their attempts to change their technique, sometimes it’s just a feeling of tightness in the calfs – but usually there is (or has been) a difficulty of some sort for these endurance athletes in making the change of foot strike.
Now, it’s well worth acknowledging that, there are a small number of Ironman athletes who genuinely do run the whole marathon with a midfoot/forefoot strike. Which is a great example of consistency of form, which I will come on to later… These athletes are few and far between, and it’s such variety between athletes which keeps my job interesting and exciting!
But, I want to take a moment to discuss the situation as it applies to the vast majority.
When a heel striking Ironman athlete approaches me and asks for my help to coach them into a more efficient midfoot striking technique, my first question is “why?”
Usain Bolt Running Form: Sprinting & Easy Running
What We As Endurance Athletes Can Learn From Usain Bolt.
There are obvious differences between the physical demands of running a marathon and performing a 100m sprint. However, as endurance athletes, it’s improtant to note that there are some technique qualities shown by Usain Bolt in the sprinting clip below which are equally desirable across all ranges of distance and pace. In particular:
- The foot landing under his hips – No overstride, therefore no excessive braking
- The lack of rotation through the torso – No wasted energy through rotation
- The way in which he doesn’t “bounce” at all – No wasted energy through vertical displacement
However there are some sprint specific elements which are not appropriate for distance running. In particular the very high forefoot position sprinters adopt (never allowing the heel to touch after a forefoot strike). Even with forefoot/midfoot striking distance runners, we ideally like to see the heel “kiss” the ground after the initial forefoot/midfoot contact and load.
Recent Study: Chronic Training Effect on Ageing
I recently stumbled across a 2011 study named “Chronic Exercise Preserves Lean Muscle Mass in Masters Athletes“. The authors identify that while there have been numerous studies examining muscle loss in ageing sedentary adults, little has been done to investigate whether the muscle loss commonly associated with the ageing process is a physiological result of muscle ageing, or an reflection of disuse atrophy (muscle wasting through lack of use).
The research methods used MRI cross-sections of numerous different athletes to draw comparisons in body composition and Lean Muscle Mass across ages and activity levels. Some of the images collected tell a powerful story themselves.
Marathon Pacing for Optimal Performance
Run Pacing Part 2: The Evidence.
In a previous post we examined Run Pacing and suggested a methodology whereby, dependent on fitness at the time of the race, runners could achieve an even paced race. We discussed this was even pace but effort had to increase to achieve the even pace. It is important to note that this strategy is applicable to runners of all abilities and that optimaldistance performances are usually achieved when the time taken to complete the first half is equal to or greater than the time to complete the second. Looking through the record books we see the World’s best runners are no exception. When Haile Gebrselassie set his then world best time of 12:39:36 for the 5km, the first half was completed in 6:22:78 (ie 50.4% of the total time) and the second half was run in 6:16:58. Similarly when he lowered the 10km record the same year to 26:22:75 he ran the first 5km in 13:11:53 and the second 5km in 13:11:22.
Foot Strike and Injury Rates in Endurance Runners
New research recently (Jan 2012) released by Dr. Daniel Lieberman and his team at Harvard University evaluates the injury statuses of a mixed sex collegiate cross country running squad of 52 athletes, looking back across a season. Researchers classified each runner in terms of foot strike type: “Rearfoot (Heel) Striker” or “Forefoot Striker“, and evaluated the injuries reported in the two groups. Of the 52 strong group, 59% were Heel Strikers and 31% Forefoot Strikers.
It turns out that 74% of the total group suffered significant running injury during the season – which follows figures suggested by injury surveillance studies in endurance running.
The interesting part… the Rearfoot (Heel) Strike group suffered approximately double the number of repetitive stress related running injuries, in comparison to the Forefoot Strikers.
What’s Limiting Your Triathlon Performance?
Performance Limiters and What To Do About Them
If you are training for your first Ironman Distance Triathlon and I was giving you a choice of swim session, would you rather do 40 x 100m with 10s Rest Intervals or would you rather do 4 x 1000m with 1 min Rest Intervals? The majority of athletes generally would opt for the former, and this alone would tell your coach whether you were naturally comfortable with either endurance or shorter sessions/events. Most athletes train the way they like to train whereas the most successful athletes train the way they need to train.
What is limiting your triathlon performance? Is it skill, technique, strength, muscular endurance, power or pure endurance? Sit down and look at all the disciplines in a triathlon: swim; bike; run; transition and nutrition then take each of these constructs, be honest and mark yourself out of 10 for each one. You should start to see where your performance is being limited. Then get your coach or a friend or partner to do the same thing; do the scores match? If you are a novice triathlete who has signed up for an Ironman then it is safe to assume you are limited by firstly endurance and secondly skill, particularly, unless you come from a swim background, in the swim.
Glute Exercises For Runners: Kettle Bell Deadlift
While it’s important to say that an incorrectly executed Deadlift can have devastating consequences for lumbar spine health, a properly coached and executed deadlift is one of the most effective and powerful Glute exercises for triathletes and runners to use to develop Glute strength and muscle balance around the hips. When executed well, the Deadlift is one of the best exercises around in terms of bang for your buck!
The Deadlift exercise it self has a real negative stigma surrounding it in many parts of the health and fitness industry, often due to the tendency for athletes to simply load up an Olympic bar and try to lift as much as they can, irrespective of form. These are the same athletes who will probably end up with herniated lumbar discs…
Glute Inhibition or Glute Weakness?
Many of us who have previously suffered from running and triathlon related injuries, will quite possibly have been told by our sports injury therapist that we have “Weak Glutes” or that your “Your Glutes Aren’t Firing Properly“.

Research indicates a significant correlation between diminished Glute function and athletic injury. For example:
Tamsin Lewis: Glutes and Core Workout
Today we decided to video some of Tamsin’s Core and Glutes Session. During the session we were focussing on improving her pelvic posture in order to improve Glute function, reduce stress on her lower back while running and swimming, helping to restore muscular balance. Thus reducing injury risks for next season.
Running Metronomes to Download FREE

A number of the many athletes we work with have requested that we provide them with a series of running metronomes. We listened and have done just that!
You can join them in practicing running with an increased and a more efficient cadence by downloading the FREE MP3 tracks below.
Running with an increased cadence is one great way to improve running form, maintaining an efficient cadence for a given pace is a skill to be developed in itself.
Here’s a link to an article with more information about running cadence.
Returning to Training after a Break
According to Aristotle and Obree
For some athletes the festive holiday period and some time off work may be the ideal opportunity to get out and train. For most however, and particularly those in the Northern Hemisphere, it may be a period of reduced training. Family commitments, potential bad weather and an innate desire to sit on the sofa usually take priority. So this might be a good time to give your body a good chance to heal and start rebuilding itself after a long season. To quote Graeme Obree “Training is bad for you! Training followed by rest and proper nutrition is good for and will make you better prepared for the event you are training for.” Remember that’s proper nutrition! So rather than fight it why not plan for this to be your down time and give something back to those who support you during your times when you are building to your A Race.
So what will happen to you during this down period and how should you come back after either this or any training break? Firstly you may put on some weight; this is entirely normal. This can be a combination of those Christmas dinners or your body returning to a more natural weight if you have shed pounds to get down to a racing weight. However over any down time the more you control the gain – the less you have to lose. Unless you have a very specific Winter race however, this period is not the time to lose weight and risk loss of training due to down time brought on by a reduced immunity. Try therefore to keep a constant healthy weight over this period. If in doubt then just try to eliminate processed foods, get your energy from fresh fruits, vegetables and lean protein and limit sugary food intake.
Matt Molloy – Lateral Hip Strength Drill
Today we decided to film Matt Molloy, top Irish Age Grouper, during his Running Technique and Running Strength session coached by James Dunne.
The short clip below is one great example of the multiplanar strength exercises which Kinetic Revolution use with such success to develop lateral and rotational strength around the hips of triathletes and runners. We focus regularly on these planes of motion, even though the athletes normally engage in linear movements. Improving strength, mobility, power and stability in multiple planes builds a much stronger runner.
Run Pacing: Get the Pace Right
Physiologists are agreed that even-pace running is the best way to run – most races for most people. However, even-pace does not mean even effort. It means increased effort as the race progresses. We may, in a 5km run of a sprint triathlon, handle the first 400m in 70 seconds with some ease, we can also maybe reach 800m at the same pace, but for the third 400m and thereafter we have to increase our effort to remain on time. The longer the race, them more the factor of maintaining an even pace has greater significance. The more we work hills and attempt to “burn off” the opposition, the greater will be the drain on our glycogen reserve. A marathon which sees the first half run in 1 hour 30 minutes and the second part in 1 hour 50 minutes has been badly executed. The favoured method is to run 51 per cent of one’s time for the first half and 49 per cent for the second half.
For races of all distances, from 5km to marathon and beyond, it is a good idea to draw up a tactical plan based on the answers to some pertinent questions:
Am I short of training and not too fit? If the answer is yes, run three quarters of the distance of the race well within yourself and try to start passing others for the last quarter.- Am I fit but not at my best yet? If so, run half the distance of the race comfortably and then start passing others to the finish.
- Am I very fit and at my peak? If so, run a quarter of the distance of the race will within yourself, and then start passing others to the end.
If difficulty is found in determining what part of the race one is in, calculate the winning time and apportion time accordingly. For example, if it is known that a 10km is usually run in 37 minutes and 30 seconds, the runner in (1) above will run steady for 28 minutes. The athlete in (2) will run steady for around 18½ minutes. And an athlete in category (3) will only be taking it steady for 9½ minutes before blasting through the field.
Running Cadence – Recent Research and Metronomes
One of the most common running technique dysfunctions we see in triathletes and runners across all levels is the tendency to overstride, creating excessive braking forces when their foot strikes the ground too far ahead of their centre of mass.
While this is a widespread problem, it’s also easily addressed: increasing your stride frequency (cadence) for a given pace will result in a foot strike closer to under your hips and therefore centre of mass. Thus reducing impact and braking forces with each stride.
For many, this in itself may not be groundbreaking news… However, often we get asked by athletes to put a figure on what rate of running cadence they specifically should be looking to achieve to stop themselves from overstriding.
A sometimes misleading goal cadence often cited is 180 strides per minute (spm) as described by Coach Jack Daniels. He noted that elite runners tend to run with a cadence in the range of 180-200spm. Subsequently 180spm has become somewhat of a “magic number” for runners to try to work their cadence up towards.
However, this advice doesn’t take into account two specific factors:
- The wide variation between individual athletes. Specifically with regard to the initial rate of their running cadence before any changes are made.
- Cadence across differing running speeds. We’re not all elite runners! Optimal cadence rates vary between individuals and even within an individual athlete for differing running paces.
Research published in 2011 by Heiderscheit et al. indicates that running at a 5-10% higher rate of cadence (than your norm for a given pace) results in a reduction of impact and therefore loading on the knee and hip joints, a decrease the amount of vertical displacement of the centre of mass (bounce), a shortening in stride length, and created less braking force at contact with the ground.
Ironman Success – What it Takes
Goals Are Not Reached By Themselves
Kinetic Revolution Head Coach, Neil Scholes discusses what it takes to reach your performance goals:
1. Patience

For example I waited 8 years before even giving Ironman a go. After being in the sport for about three years I knew that I was not a naturally-gifted athlete. It was going to take a bit of time and patience to gain the fitness required.
Recently, I have seen a huge influx of very new athletes signing up for Ironman, within their first year of entering the sport. Unless these athletes come from a very strong aerobic background, focusing on the development of durability, they are likely to be without proper preparation.
These athletes often fall into the trap of a shotgun approach, overly emphasising intensity during their training. This typically leads to injury and/or burnout, which derails consistency and long-term progress. Of course, there are plenty of athletes who do qualify with this approach, but I would argue that they are outliers; exceptions to the rule, gifted with good genetics. However, a more patient approach would promote even greater long-term progress for them as well.
How to Prevent Running Blisters
Suffering from blisters caused by running can be incredibly frustrating and is an ailment that affects runners and triathletes of all abilities. Blisters can be extremely painful and can stop runners in their tracks; they can also cause infection if not dealt with in the correct manner.
There are three main factors which cause runners to get blisters on their feet: heat, moisture and friction. The best way to tackle the problem of blisters is to address the three main causes of blistering. If you try and reduce friction against your shoe and keep your feet dry and cool this should minimise the problem of blistering. As the saying goes, prevention is better than cure.
Improve Your Marathon Training in Three Steps
FREE 16 Week Marathon Training Program
Every year many runners take on the challenge of training for a marathon. For some, it might be their first attempt at the 26.2 mile distance, others will be looking to set new PBs and take their performance to new levels. Unfortunately for a large percentage of these runners, the challenge experiences a set-back when injury occurs somewhere along their training plan.
Discounting the occasional acute injury such as a twisted ankle, the vast majority of these running injuries classify as overuse injuries created by the highly repetitive and significant loading that’s fundamentally characteristic of the movement of running. These overuse injuries are, almost without exception as a result of the runner increasing the training frequency, volume (milage) and/or intensity (speed) to a point that their body simply isn’t ready for given their training history.
So, other than following a realistic and progressive Marathon Training Program, what can be done to help reduce the risk of overuse injuries?
Here are a few things to consider:
Insights into Great Running Posture
Leaning Forwards versus Bending Forwards
Firstly, let me preface my following comments by saying that running technique isn’t a one size fit’s all subject (for example the heel striking vs midfoot striking debate). Every runner is different. However, we are all bound by the same laws of physics! As such, there are aspects of good running technique, such as posture, which will commonly apply to the vast majority of runners and triathletes.
The most important thing to appreciate with reference to running posture is that gravity can either work for you or against you. When good running posture enables you to engage gravity and use it to your advantage, you get the feeling of controlled falling forward and developing “free speed”. In contrast if your running posture is poor, you end up fighting against gravity to push yourself off the ground.







